Howdy folks! Welcome to The Pick Is In! That’s right, we’re back for another run with this experiment and can’t wait to see what our GMs, err, writers can cook up. If you’re unfamiliar with this series, lemme paint the picture for you. Our writers will be stepping up to the plate for a NFL franchise and act as if they have full control of the team on draft day. For each team, we’ll have three writers (two this time around) step into the front office and take over as general manager. You’ll see picks made from No. 1 overall to a sixth-rounder, bold picks will be made in unique spots, and trades will be cooked up. To highlight some of our success from 2022, we saw the Bengals trade up to take a star named Tariq Woolen in the mid 40s, the Packers snagged a stud in Jalen Pitre with the 28th overall pick, and with the 98th overall pick, the Saints struck gold with the valuable Zach Tom. This year will be no different. Our GMs will once again be showcasing their unique abilities to find intriguing talent. Whether you know it or not, the draft has already begun and it resumes with The Pick Is In. Welcome to the 2023 NFL Draft. The Las Vegas Raiders are on the clock…
Brendan Heffernan:
The Pick Is In: Anthony Richardson QB — Florida (1st Round, 7th Overall)
Anthony Richardson has been one of the most talked about players in this draft because he represents a paradigm shift in NFL quarterback evaluation. He only started one season for the Gators, didn’t do any significant winning in Gainesville, and finished his career with a pretty pedestrian statline. Lucky for him, he’s also the most physically gifted quarterback prospect in recent memory, shows an elite ability to move within the pocket, and will step into the league as one of pro football’s most dynamic ball carriers.
For these reasons, I expect him to find a home in the top 10, and Las Vegas feels like a perfect fit. Reports surrounding the team have suggested that the Raiders are looking to figure out their long-term quarterback situation in this draft, and that they think too highly of Richardson’s talent to pass on him.
Having veteran starter Jimmy Garoppolo in place for 2023 gives Las Vegas the flexibility to allow Richardson to keep developing behind the scenes, just as San Francisco looked to do with Trey Lance in 2021 when Garoppolo was still the starter.
Richardson makes a lot of sense schematically for Las Vegas as well. Future Hall of Famer Davante Adams has a stronger gravitational pull than any pass catcher in the league, and he still makes defenses build their game-plans around stopping him first and foremost. One way teams do this is by leaning heavily on Cover 2 and Cover 6 defenses that look to keep defensive backs both above and underneath Adams at all times. These defensive structures make defending the run more difficult, and running back Josh Jacobs enjoyed a career year last season thanks in part to how teams had to defend the Raiders. The impact of Richardson in the run game is made even greater by that context.
The idea of an 11-personnel grouping featuring Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Jakobi Meyers at wide receiver, Jacobs at running back, one of the many talented tight ends in this draft and Richardson at quarterback has the potential to be one of the most versatile and devastating lineups in the NFL.
While I think that Richardson’s college stats say more about the structure that surrounded him at Florida than they do about him as a prospect, the biggest knock on Richardson for me is his footwork. I find that to be his biggest barrier to being consistently accurate. He has the tendency to get up on his toes when throwing, which makes his throwing motion harder to replicate on a down-to-down basis. Hopefully one more year of development could steady that part of his game, but there’s a real possibility it never gets better.
This juxtaposition gives Las Vegas’ team the chance to make one of the biggest dice rolls in this year’s draft. If it pays off, the Raiders will be pretty damn rich.
Matthew Townsend:
The Pick Is In: Cam Smith CB — South Carolina (2nd Round, 38th Overall)
The more exciting pick might be how the Raiders wheel and deal their way to a QB at the top of the draft, but I am going to build up their defense and take my #2 CB in the draft. Las Vegas has some desperate needs in the CB room. Rock Ya-Sin was the Raiders’ top outside corner and is currently a free agent, and they also added Brandon Facyson, Duke Shelley, and David Long Jr. via free agency. Amik Robertson is solid in the slot, but their CB2 spot needs some work. I think one of the fantastic cornerbacks out of South Carolina would be a great fit for this spot, and in terms of the value you get from where you draft them, Cam Smith is our best option.
We all know the Raiders love their freak athletes, and Smith has phenomenal athleticism, with a 9.70 Relative Athletic Score based on his combine testing. He has good height at 6-foot-1, and while he is a tad on the lighter side, he makes up for it with supreme closing speed and burst. As a third-year in 2021, he was one of the best corners in college football, allowing just an absurd 36.5 QB rating when targeted. He also hauled in three interceptions and 14 pass breakups. His final year was not quite as good statistically, but he was still extremely solid with six pass breakups and an interception. He was targeted much less this year as his reputation had grown from his impressive 2021 season. He is also an aggressive tackler; he flies downhill on screens and shallow throws and meets the ball carrier with force.
Cam Smith trusting his eyes & film study pic.twitter.com/WdETYBqoiT
— Chris (@ChrisJustJoking) December 3, 2022
He is a film study fanatic, and that kind of anticipation pops up all over his tape. He seems to anticipate common concepts from the offense and anticipate where routes are going to come from. This gives him an edge in zone coverage, which, along with his elite twitchiness, allows him to fly to the ball. That same twitchiness allows him to be sticky in man coverage, as it’s rare for someone to just be able to run away from him. His hips are extremely fluid, and he is able to flip them and turn and burn with the best of them to track deep routes. His one concern is his frame, which is what has led to my CB2 to be projected outside of the first round in most mocks. If he is able to put some weight on his frame, I would be shocked if he didn’t go in the top 20.
— Jared Tokarz (@JaredNFLDraft) February 25, 2023
As it stands however, the Raiders are in a position to grab an elite player at a discount and should jump at the opportunity. It’s a great fit for them, and Smith has the versatility to play both inside and out, giving them flexibility in roster additions. Whatever they do in the first round, adding to the CB room should still be a top priority for Vegas, and this would be a fantastic way to do it.
About the author
I’m a USC fan of 15 years who majored in Math at UC Riverside, and graduated in 2020. I’m a big fan of using analytics and statistics to shape how I view college football. I've been watching and betting on sports for as long as I legally could. My favorite college football memory is Tua coming in at halftime of the championship game to come back and lead Alabama to a national title.
