For the third time in four years, the Texas Longhorns find themselves in the Valero Alamo Bowl against a revamped Washington Huskies team led by first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer. The Longhorns won their previous meetings against Utah and Colorado, while the Huskies qualified for the Alamo Bowl for the first time in 11 years.

How Texas Got Here:

2022 has been a wild season for Texas. Coming off a horrible 5-7 first season, head coach Steve Sarkisian could not afford another losing season. The Longhorns showed great improvements, winning eight games, but they still left a lot on the table losing all four games by one possession. Texas finished strong winning three out of its last four, but its worst offensive performance of the season against TCU cost the Horns a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game and all but secured their third Alamo Bowl appearance in four years.

How Washington Got Here:

Washington badly needed just a decent season after a despicable 4-8 season in Jimmy Lake’s first (and final) full year. Fresno State head coach Kalen DeBoer took the job after Lake’s dismissal, and there was an immediate impact, especially on offense. Indiana transfer QB Michael Penix Jr. finally gave the Huskies some life on offense as they scored at least 30 points in each of their first seven games.

They began with four straight victories, matching their 2021 win total in a third of the time. One of those wins was against then-11th-ranked Michigan State on Montlake in a game that was not nearly as close as the final score indicated. But the comfort of Seattle wouldn’t travel on the road, as they tripped up against UCLA and were shocked by a lowly Arizona State team to start 0-2 on the road.

Washington bounced back with consecutive wins against Arizona, Cal, and Oregon State heading into a huge rivalry matchup against a red-hot Oregon team. The Huskies hadn’t traveled to Eugene in four years, and Penix made some unbelievably clutch plays down the stretch to lead the Huskies to victory. The Huskies closed out the year with a blowout win over Colorado and a shootout victory in the Apple Cup. They finished the 2022 season first in the FBS in passing yards, second in total offense, and fourth in scoring.

Keys to Victory for Texas:

Washington’s passing offense has been lights out this season. Michael Penix Jr. finished the regular season first in the FBS in passing yards. The Huskies match up perfectly against a Texas team that has struggled to prevent big plays in the air all season. If the Longhorns want to stand a chance in this game, their defensive backs have to be disciplined all four quarters. 

On the other side of the ball, Texas’ passing game has been the complete opposite of the Huskies. Longhorn nation was excited with the addition of freshman phenom Quinn Ewers arriving to the 40 Acres. But, Sarkisian’s passing offense has been nothing but inconsistent. With star running back Bijan Robinson opting out, the Texas passing game will need to pick up the slack. 

Keys to Victory for Washington:

The Huskies must make Quinn Ewers uncomfortable. Their pass rush has been inconsistent, but it has proven to be effective, as the Dawgs were one of the only teams to make Bo Nix uncomfortable all year against one of the top offensive lines in the nation. Texas has a stout offensive line that only allowed 1.4 sacks per game and paved the way for one of the premier rushing attacks in the sport. UW ranked in the top 20 in sacks per game, but this game could be won in the trenches.

Washington also must punish the Longhorns on third down and play smart on the crucial down as it has all year. The Huskies rank first in the FBS in third down conversion rate at 57.1%, while Texas’s defense ranks 80th in the nation in third down defense with a 39.7% conversion rate allowed.

Lastly, the Huskies are one of the best teams in the country in the first quarter, outsourcing opponents 106-46 in the opening period. If the Huskies get out to a hot start, it may be a long day for the Longhorns, especially without Bijan Robinson.

Players to Watch:

Texas:

#24 RB Jonathon Brooks — During this very bowl game in 2020 we saw Bijan Robinson burst onto the scene with a stunning performance against Colorado. He won’t be on the field Thursday, and its no doubt that Texas will miss the production of Robinson and Roschon Johnson. Jonathan Brooks is next in line to be the lead back and has shown signs he’s ready to take that role. He’ll have his opportunity Thursday and Texas needs him to seize it if they want to win. 

#6 DB Ryan Watts — The Ohio State transfer has been amazing this season and arguably Texas’ best defensive back. Washington has not one, but two 1000+ yard receivers. Watts is a big physical corner and has all the size and athleticism to match up with Washington’s elite receivers. 

Washington:

#9 QB Michael Penix Jr. — Let’s face it, you were gonna watch Penix in this game anyway. His accuracy and timing are as good as anyone in the country, and he’s got an array of weapons at his disposal. His poise in big moments is beyond impressive, and it’s been so fun to watch his growth from a streaky quarterback at Indiana to a gunslinger and bona fide star at UW.

#3 EDGE Jeremiah Martin — Washington’s defensive line is one of its strengths, and no one has created more havoc for opposing offenses than Jeremiah Martin. The Texas A&M transfer turned in an All-Pac-12 First Team-worthy campaign, leading the team with 11 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. If the Huskies are to make Ewers’s life miserable in the backfield, it will start with Martin. Texas freshman left tackle Kelvin Banks was one of the best freshman in the country and will have a tough test in containing Martin and co.

Score Predictions:

Adam: Washington gained a huge boost when both Penix and wide receiver Jalen McMillan announced they would be returning for the 2023 season. On the other side, Texas’ only consistent offensive production has been Bijan Robinson. Washington just has too much firepower and wins in a close one. Washington 38, Texas 32.

Dylan: Without Bijan Robinson, the 2022 Doak Walker Award winner, and his backup Roschon Johnson, I have a hard time envisioning the Longhorns having enough offense production to keep pace with the Huskies. Washington 42, Texas 24.