The Houston Cougars are closing the book on two eras with this bowl game. In 2023, they will take the next step to a Power Five conference, but first they will say goodbye to program legends Clayton Tune and Tank Dell in the Independence Bowl. Louisiana will look to cap Michael Desormeaux’s first year as head coach by spoiling the Cougars’ graduation parties and earning a victory in its home state. 

How We Got Here:

Houston: 

The Houston Cougars are not supposed to be in this game. Coming into the season, the Cougars were poised to be this year’s version of Cincinnati. A College Football Playoff spot was calling their name, but that all went out the window after losing three of their first five games. Things were looking grim, but Dana Holgorsen’s team did a great job staying focused. Houston won five of its next six games before losing to Tulsa on senior night.

Louisiana:

This season was the start of a new era for the Ragin’ Cajuns. Billy Napier moved on to Florida after one of the most successful runs in program history, and stalwarts such as QB Levi Lewis, guard O’Cyrus Torrence, and CB Mekhi Garner moved on as well. The Cajuns elevated from within, turning the reins of the program over to longtime Napier lieutenant Michael Desormeaux. The team got off to a slow start, stumbling to a 2-3 record out of the gate, including a stunning loss to rival UL-Monroe. But they rallied late around their strong defense and eked out a fifth straight bowl game appearance. 

Keys to the Game: 

Houston: 

Christmas came early for Holgorsen when star WR Tank Dell decided to play in the bowl game, even though he declared for the NFL draft. The combo of Dell and QB Clayton Tune produced nothing but fireworks all season, coming at sixth in the country for passing yards per game. 

On defense, Houston has been nothing but a disaster. The Cougars rank one of the worst defenses in the country, only holding one opponent under 20 points all year. They produce a lot of sacks and are able to make big plays in the backfield. But, the secondary has been ripped apart through the air, allowing 430 yards per game (sixth-worst in FBS).

Louisiana:

Pass defense, pass defense, pass defense. It’s that simple. If the Cajuns can make life difficult for Tune, Dell, and Matthew Golden, they can stick around in this game. Doing so will require a strong pass rush from pocket-collapsing defensive tackle Zi’Yon Hill-Green, because Louisiana will be without the services of its top edge rusher Andre Jones, who is preparing for the NFL draft. Pass defense has been a strength all season: the Cajuns rank ninth in FBS in PFF’s coverage grading metric. 

Players to Watch:

Houston: 

WR Tank Dell — The future NFL wide receiver totaled 103 receptions and over 1,300 yards this season. He is a big play waiting to happen and a matchup nightmare. With the Cougars struggling on defense, Dell will need to have a huge game. 

WR Matthew Golden — The freshman receiver broke out this season, and he will be a huge weapon next year for the Cougars. Bowl games are all about starting momentum going into the next season. I expect Golden to step up and show he is ready to fill the huge shoes Tank Dell will leave.

QB Clayton Tune — Houston’s key to winning is all on its offense. This season, we have had to see numerous late-game heroics from the Cougars. Six of Houston’s 12 games have come down to the final drive with three ending in overtime. A lot of that falls on Tune. He has all the tools to be an elite quarterback, and he will need to be lights out on Friday. 

Louisiana:

QB Chandler Fields — Chandler Fields had an up-and-down season for the Cajuns. He started the year in first chair, but he ceded a few drives per game to backup Ben Wooldridge as Desormeaux wanted to assess all options at the position. Fields was solid but unspectacular as the starter before getting supplanted by the more dynamic Wooldridge in Week 6, but was pressed back into action for the final two weeks of the season after a season-ending injury to Wooldridge. Despite getting benched, Fields is perhaps the better matchup against this Houston team and its ferocious pass rush; he is a better scrambler and is steadier under pressure than the boom-or-bust Wooldridge. Look for Fields to hit a few key checkdowns or move the chains with his legs to extend drives.

DT Zi’Yon Hill-Green — Hill-Green was a monster this season collapsing pockets up the middle. The prodigious pass rusher was tabbed First Team All-Sun Belt and will be tasked with getting Tune out of rhythm on Friday. Hill-Green lived in opposing backfields this fall, accumulating seven sacks and 31 quarterback pressures. With one more quarterback takedown in his final game, he will break a tie and move into first place as Louisiana’s all-time career sacks leader. 

Score Predictions:

Adam: Having Tune and Dell is a huge plus for the Cougars. The Ragin’ Cajuns will be able to keep the game close, but Houston’s firepower will be too much. Cougars win another shootout. Houston 38, Louisiana 30.

Dan: Louisiana will make life difficult for the Cougars, but the legendary Tune-Dell connection is too strong, and they connect late in the fourth quarter for one final time. Houston 27, Louisiana 20.