Week 3 turned into a surprisingly electric slate, which we all should have realized was going to happen after how widespread the discussion was that it was underwhelming. Either way, we turned it into a positive week as we hit three of five picks and hit our lock for the second week in a row. Week 4 has no excuse to not be insane, with six ranked matchups and a matchup of two top ACC teams in Florida State and Clemson. 

Kentucky at Vanderbilt: Kentucky -13.5 — 1.1u to win 1u

The Wildcats have been clicking on all cylinders to start the year. They haven’t faced the best of competition but have made quick work of all of their non-conference opponents. As they get into SEC play, they face off against one of the bottom feeders in the conference. Vandy is a respectable 2-2 to start the year, but is 0-4 against the spread and lost to a poor UNLV team last week. Kentucky seems to be a more pass-heavy offense with Devin Leary under center and seems to have a tendency to run up the score, so I like the Wildcats to win by two touchdowns.

SMU at TCU: SMU +6.5 — 1.1u to win 1u

SMU has really impressed me early in the year. Its defense has been very strong; even in the loss, it held Oklahoma to just 28, by far its lowest of the year. The Horned Frogs’ offense is still strong, but is nowhere near as good as it was last year. Then on the other side of the ball, Preston Stone has started the year extremely hot and can move the ball against this TCU defense. I think the Mustangs have a chance for the upset here as well, but I think this stays within one score.

Southern Mississippi at Arkansas State: Under 49 — 1.1u to 1u

Outside of playing against an FCS school, Southern Miss has been completely unable to move the ball. 13 points against Florida State and 3 against Tulane, as teams just stacked the box and dared the Golden Eagles to throw. Butch Jones’ Red Wolves only had three points through the first two weeks of the season. Neither team has shown an ability to move the ball consistently, and while both defenses have been suspect, I think this is going to be an ugly game.

Notre Dame at Ohio State: Notre Dame +3.5 — 1.1u to 1u

I just think the Fighting Irish are the better overall team this year. They unquestionably have the better quarterback as Sam Hartman has been electric to start the year while Kyle McCord has struggled to fit into the offense. Notre Dame had the better defense last year, and while the Buckeyes have improved on that side of the ball, I think it’s still a wash at best. I don’t think Notre Dame should be an underdog on a neutral site, but at The Shoe, it should still probably be a pick ’em. This would be my lock of the week if not for my actual pick.

LOCK OF THE WEEK:

Florida State at Clemson: Florida State -2.5 — 2.2u to win 2u

Did Vegas watch Clemson play against Duke? The only Power Five school the Tigers have played absolutely dominated them from start to finish. This is the same Clemson we’ve seen over the last couple of years. As long as Dabo Swinney is going to force quarterbacks to run his strange RPO offense, they will continue to struggle to produce. Florida State is one of the most complete teams in the country. It has one weakness in the secondary, but luckily the Tigers don’t stress secondaries very much. I think this spread should be at a touchdown or even double digits at a neutral site. So I’m happy to take Florida State winning by a field goal in Death Valley

Last Week: 3-2-0 +1.8u

Yearly: 7-8-0 -2.0u