Welcome to the second part in a series examining 2022 college football win total over/under bets. Our crack team will take a handful of different approaches to create a multi-faceted outlook designed to get you to the window. 

Our decisions will be guided with an analytics approach, as we lean heavily on Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ projections. We will also cast a discerning eye on each team’s schedules, carefully combing through for the gimme wins, the trap games, and the toss-ups that will determine each team’s fate. In addition, we have studied up on our scouting reports, position battles, coaching changes, and other offseason upheaval to find this year’s sleepers and busts. And our final measure is perhaps the most important: just vibes, baby.

We will look at one Power Five conference per day, examining each team’s win total spread. Some picks we will make in high confidence, and others will be “stay aways.” Our lines are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and of course are subject to change.

If you’re on board to follow the advice of a college football blogger and give the sportsbooks an interest-free loan for the next six months, then let’s go win some money! I fully understand if you are not going to play along, so I’ll try to make the journey as entertaining as possible for you. The real bets we win are the friends we make along the way. 

Today we move on to Part Two of the series and look at the always turbulent ACC. 

ATLANTIC

Boston College Eagles – Over/Under 6 wins. I was really surprised at this number, and I hoped it might be a little lower so I could feel more confident taking the over. I think Jeff Hafley is a rising star in the coaching ranks. BC fans should be squarely in that purgatory of optimism about a young coach’s future but terrified he’s going to get called up to a powerhouse program soon. Quarterback Phil Jurkovec is back, along with wide receiver Zay Flowers, and both could be the best in the league at their respective positions. I wish the schedule broke a little easier, but I think the Eagles are in for a good year, and I will go with my gut and take the over. 

Clemson Tigers – Over/Under 10.5 wins. The floor for Clemson is incredibly high — could you really see this team going, say, 6-6? The Tigers will basically get off the bus and go 8-4. The variance is at the high end of the win total — will they make the College Football Playoff, or just go 9-3? The running game will be stout, and the defense will be incredible at all three levels. Much hullabaloo is made about DJ Uiagalelei and if he will ever thrive as a signal caller, but a bigger question mark is Dabo Swinney’s gamble on promoting internally to replace his stalwart coordinators. These roles are too important to risk your money on such unknowns, so I would recommend you stay away.

Florida State Seminoles – Over/Under 7.5 wins. Whose bright idea was it to book two SEC teams? In addition to the traditional rivalry game against Florida, the schedule also sports a Week 1 neutral site affair with LSU. In order to get to eight wins, the retooled Seminoles will need to play well outside of the friendly confines of Doak Campbell Stadium, as they have four road conference games that are all in the “toss-up” range. I like quarterback Jordan Travis, and I’m of the age where I just expect FSU to be great every year. However, there are too many unknowns, and the program is not on stable enough footing for me to make a pick with conviction. Stay away.

Louisville Cardinals – Over/Under 6 wins. There is a lot to like with this Cardinals team, starting with the explosive Malik Cunningham at quarterback. He will be one of the best players in the country, and a transcendent season from Cunningham alone could carry them well over the six win threshold. The offensive line will be experienced, and head coach Scott Satterfield hit the transfer portal hard to boost the talent level around Cunningham. The schedule has pitfalls: six true road games, including at rival Kentucky and at UCF. I just don’t see enough gimme wins to take an over, and I like Cunningham too much to go under. Stay away. 

North Carolina State Wolfpack – Over/Under 8.5 wins. Everyone and their mother and their mother’s mother is on the Wolfpack as a “sleeper” team this year, which means the sleeper label can be thrown out the window. QB Devin Leary is a bona fide stud, and the defense will be one of the best in the country, full stop. NC State fans are officially reaching the “oh god, stop looking at us” portion of being a trendy underdog. I see eight comfortable wins on the schedule and no likely losses, which means the over hits with just one win from the remaining toss-ups. You know what to do.

Syracuse Orange – Over/Under 4.5 wins. The mental image of a Dino Babers team is an air-raid, sling it around, lose a shootout 48-44 type of team, but the recent years in Syracuse have been centered around a quietly decent defense and a rushing attack powered by workhorse back Sean Tucker. This team will be outclassed by the top of the league, and maybe even the middle of it, too. Four wins feels like the right amount to me, but the path is there for five as well. Damn… I guess these sportsbooks know what they’re doing when they make these lines. I would stay away. 

Wake Forest Demon Deacons – Over/Under 8.5 wins. This hurts to say, but I would take the under. The Deacs were a darling of college football last year, with a unique high-powered offense and a deplorable defense. A few bad breaks each way, a swing in turnover luck, and a few of those shootouts go the other way. Sam Hartman is a good quarterback and AT Perry is an underrated star at receiver, but I do not want to buy high on another storybook season. 

COASTAL

Duke Blue Devils – Over/Under 3.5 wins. This is the worst roster in the league, a program that has bottomed out, and a true year zero reset for new head coach Mike Elko. I don’t see two wins here, let alone four. This is an easy under for me. 

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Over/Under 3.5 wins. Georgia Tech took the hardest elements of Louisville’s schedule (a road game at UCF) and Florida State (scheduling an extra SEC game) and tacked it onto a schedule that already includes Georgia! The vibes around the program are not good, and the roster is not much better. I have a hard time seeing four wins on this schedule, and advise you take the under. 

Miami Hurricanes – Over/Under 8.5 wins. I am buying in. The schedule breaks well for the Canes. Even if they are overmatched in road games in College Station and Clemson, they should be favored in all 10 other games. Mario Cristobal will bring bedrock offensive line play and a tough defense. Both coordinator hires (Josh Gattis and Kevin Steele) are home runs. Even with maybe the worst wide receiver room of all the top college football contenders, this team will win nine or 10 games. We’re riding the Cane Train and the over! 

North Carolina Tar Heels – Over/Under 8 wins. The Tar Heels open the season with a trip to Boone to face Appalachian State, a sturdy Group of Five program that is just dying to take down the big fish in the state. There is absolutely a path to hitting the over, but my choice is the under. WR Josh Downs and DB Storm Duck will be two of the best players in the country at their position, period. While there is talent on the roster, Mack Brown has made a habit of assembling teams where the whole is less than the sum of the parts. 

Pittsburgh Panthers – Over/Under 8 wins. The floor is high – I can’t imagine a scenario where they go 6-6. The schedule is manageable, the defense is sturdy, and the program is in good hands overall. Hitting the over depends on replacing a Heisman finalist, the Biletnikoff winner, and an excellent offensive coordinator, without losing other gains elsewhere. Similar to my Wake Forest outlook, I don’t love buying high on a program with a shorter resume, and advise you to stay away. 

Virginia Cavaliers – Over/Under 7 wins. The prolific passing production of Brennan Armstrong returns, patching over what might be a dire situation. The Hoos defense is accommodating to opposing offenses, and the offensive line will have to be rebuilt entirely from scratch. If Armstrong had left in the offseason, this would look almost like a year zero rebuild and the number might be closer to 4 or 4.5. It’s a shame that Armstrong won’t get to finish his career in Charlottesville with one last final storybook ride. I will take the under.

Virginia Tech Hokies – Over/Under 5.5 wins. Justin Fuentes’ ill-fated attempt to rewrite the Virginia Tech recipe has mercifully ended, and Brent Pry will be restoring the regional, blue-collar approach that worked for decades in Blacksburg. There are four easy wins on the schedule, but is there enough talent in the cabinet to make a run at bowl eligibility this year? The offense will be, um, under construction, but the defense might be good enough to win two of the close matchups. Rivals West Virginia and Virginia will both visit Blacksburg. Take the over: this is a soft endorsement of a surprising year for the Hokies, and one of the bowl games in an AL East stadium. 

SUMMARY

Over: Miami 8.5, NC State 8.5, Boston College 6, Virginia Tech 5.5

Under: Wake Forest 8.5, North Carolina 8, Virginia 7, Duke 3.5, Georgia Tech 3.5

Stay Away: Clemson 10.5, Pittsburgh 8, Florida State 7.5, Louisville 6, Syracuse 4.5

Coming Monday: Big 12