Welcome to the first in a series examining 2022 college football win total over/under bets. Our crack team will take a handful of different approaches to create a multi-faceted outlook designed to get you to the window. 

Our decisions will be guided with an analytics approach, as we lean heavily on Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ projections. We will also cast a discerning eye on each team’s schedules, carefully combing through for the gimme wins, the trap games, and the toss-ups that will determine each team’s fate. In addition, we have studied up on our scouting reports, position battles, coaching changes, and other offseason upheaval to find this year’s sleepers and busts. And our final measure is perhaps the most important: just vibes, baby.

We will look at one Power Five conference per day, examining each team’s win total spread. Some picks we will make in high confidence, and others will be “stay aways.” Our lines are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and of course are subject to change.

If you’re on board to follow the advice of a college football blogger, and give the sportsbooks an interest-free loan for the next six months, then let’s go win some money! I fully understand if you are not going to play along, so I’ll try to make the journey as entertaining as possible for you. The real bets we win are the friends we make along the way. 

Today, we begin the series with a look at God’s Own Conference — the SEC. 

EAST

Florida Gators – Over/Under 7 wins. This is a tempting over because the schedule should provide six easy wins. However, the official pick is to stay away. Billy Napier has slow-played his arrival in Gainesville; he has downplayed expectations for this season (in coachspeak) and hasn’t taken as many high-profile transfers as, say, USC or LSU. It should be a concern that Anthony Richardson, for all of his talent, did not clearly seize the starting quarterback job last year when it was on the table.

Georgia Bulldogs – Over/Under 11.5 wins. It is basically impossible to find a loss on this schedule; but, because of the half win, they only have to find it once for you to lose the bet. (For comparison, Alabama and Ohio State are both at 11 even). The defense will be merely great, and the conservative offense has to drop the ball just once. I could see it happening, but I won’t bet on it. Stay away.

Kentucky Wildcats – Over/Under 8.5 wins. The Wildcats are replacing a lot of important pieces, but QB Will Levis is back and Mark Stoops has built a very consistent program. I lean under, because I am skeptical of Levis and his ability to take another step forward as a truly special player.

Missouri Tigers – Over/Under 5 wins. Missouri’s schedule is a perfect three-way split: four easy wins, four losses, and four toss-ups. The path to six wins is clear: take care of business when favored, and then split the tossups (Kentucky and Arkansas at home, at South Carolina and Kansas State). This is easier said than done because the Tigers will likely be underdogs in all four of those toss-ups. As a Missouri fan, my heart is optimistic the team will improve in the right spots to go to a bowl game. But we are not talking about my heart; we are talking about your wallet. Stay away.

South Carolina Gamecocks – Over/Under 6 wins. Shane Beamer has won the press conference, the transfer portal, a bowl game, and a mayo bath. Can he win half of his games against one of the toughest schedules in the country? In my view of Connelly’s preseason projections, the Gamecocks will have seven likely losses, so they will need to steal a win. That task will only be possible if Spencer Rattler’s rumored locker room issues at Oklahoma don’t resurface with his new team. I am bullish on Beamer’s work with his program, but bearish on his team’s progress for this season and recommend you take the under. 

Tennessee Volunteers – Over/Under 7.5 wins. There are two losses on the schedule – you know the two. So can the Vols win eight out of the other 10? I think they will. The Josh Heupel offense will hold serve against overmatched teams, and there are six easy wins on the schedule. Tennessee has the opposite of the Missouri situation and should be favored in all four of its toss-up games. You only need the Vols to split to win the over.

Vanderbilt Commodores – Over/Under 2.5 wins. The schedule does them no favors, as they only have one likely win (Elon) and could be underdogs even in road games at Hawaii and Northern Illinois. Vanderbilt has only six home games total, which makes the path to three wins difficult to find. Clark Lea might be building something in Nashville, but the results won’t be in the win column this early in the process. Under. 

WEST

Alabama Crimson Tide – Over/Under 11 wins. In the 14 seasons with a fully-armed and operational battle station, Nick Saban has only lost multiple regular season games twice. This Alabama team is not going to slip up twice. Not with the Texas A&M and Auburn games in Tuscaloosa, a down LSU, and drawing Vanderbilt from the East. This is a full-throated OVER selection. You heard it here, folks — Alabama is good.

Arkansas Razorbacks – Over/Under 7 wins. Sam Pittman has done an impressive job turning around this program, and Arkansas partisans have every right to be overjoyed about the present and future of this team. However, this number is a tad high for a team with so many toss-up games on the schedule. Cincinnati (in Fayetteville) and BYU (in Provo) are two brutal games to tack on to the toughest division in the sport. The identity and culture are strong, but so are the opponents. Stay away. 

Auburn Tigers – Over/Under 6 wins. There are some things I just can’t recommend in life. Going on vacation when your job is in jeopardy, for one. Another would be downplaying the importance of the COVID-19 vaccination when you are in a leadership role. Oh, I just thought of another thing I don’t recommend: wagering actual real money on the Auburn Tigers. Stay the hell away. 

LSU Tigers – Over/Under 7 wins. Brian Kelly has pushed hard for transfer portal band-aids, and, as a result, has a top-three transfer class, according to 247 Sports. That, combined with a culture change, could be enough to have the Tigers surprise people in his first year at the helm. However, I am not sold on Jayden Daniels as the answer at quarterback, or if the portal additions are enough to overcome a roster that has leaked a tremendous amount of talent. This is an under, but not one I feel strongly about.

Mississippi State Bulldogs – Over/Under 6.5 wins. Somebody has to win the coin-flip games in the middle of the pack of the SEC West, and why not a team with an underrated defense and a veteran quarterback? Mike Leach seems downright normal compared to some of his cohorts in the division. The non-conference schedule is accommodating. Let’s ride with the Pirate and the over! 

Ole Miss Rebels – Over/Under 7.5 wins. Another SEC team with transfer portal band-aids, a zany head coach, and a whole bunch of toss-ups on the schedule. Blue-chip backfield Zach Evans and Jaxson Dart headline a talented portal class, but offensive firepower is not a concern for a Lane Kiffin team. The coaching staff changeover is significant and enough to give me pause. A sweep in the non-conference slate should be easy, but I am scared of all of the roster and staff turnover. Stay away. 

Texas A&M Aggies – Over/Under 8.5 wins. Jimbo Fisher has taken A&M’s recruiting up a notch, and this will be one of the most talented rosters in the country. Max Johnson will improve A&M’s vertical passing attack, which was a sorely missing ingredient from last year’s recipe. The schedule is tough, but manageable; the Aggies will be favorites in every game except that pesky trip to Alabama. There is enough here for a team that will live in the top 10 and be a part of the playoff picture all season. I will take the over. 

SUMMARY

Over: Alabama 11, Texas A&M 8.5, Tennessee 7.5, Mississippi State 6.5

Under: Kentucky 8.5, LSU 7, South Carolina 6, Vanderbilt 2.5

Stay Away: Georgia 11.5, Ole Miss 7.5, Arkansas 7, Florida 7, LSU 7, Missouri 5

Coming tomorrow: ACC