Here we go. The bowl everybody and their mother has been waiting for. The absolute atrocity that will be the Music City Bowl. Remember last year’s shootout between Tennessee and Purdue? Prepare for the exact opposite here. This is a game that will put you to sleep, even in its early morning slate. We will now punt the ball over to Matt for a breakdown of the Iowa season.

How We Got Here:

Iowa: 

The Hawkeyes are here almost in spite of themselves and almost entirely on the strength of their defense. Iowa kicked off the year in a shocking affair against South Dakota State that it probably should have lost. In that game, the Hawkeyes scored on one offensive possession, and two defensive possessions. That is one field goal, and two safeties. This of course started a trend of people tracking whether or not Iowa’s defense would outscore its offense. It didn’t end up doing so, but it was probably much closer than it should have been. The defense was sixth in the country in scoring defense, allowing a measly 14.4 points per game. The Hawkeyes special teams unit was also strong. Despite facing among the most punts in the country, they had the 17th-best average for punt return yards allowed. Iowa held its fate in its own hands going into the final game of the season, but a shocking loss to the lowly Nebraska Cornhuskers in a game in which the Hawkeyes were favored by double digits ended those hopes. I’m now going to punt it to Dave for the Kentucky season.

Kentucky:

Led by quarterback Will Levis, who for some reason is going to be a top 10 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Wildcats started the season 4-0 and climbed to No. 7 in the AP poll. After getting that high in the rankings, the wheels kind of fell off the bus. They lost three out of their next four to Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Tennessee. What really summed up Kentucky’s season was a 24-21 loss to Vanderbilt at home. You would think with such a highly-touted NFL prospect at quarterback, this team’s problem would be its defense but that wasn’t the case. Kentucky’s defense was actually pretty good this year. The Wildcats’ defensive unit wasn’t as good as Iowa’s obviously, but it allowed only 19.1 points and 320.2 yards per game. The Wildcats were extremely stingy against the pass but had some trouble against the run. If they want to win this absolute barn-burner, they’re going to have to stop the Iowa run game. For Iowa’s keys to the game, I’m going to punt it over to Matt.

Keys to the Game:

Iowa:

Score any points. That’s it. Just score a few points. It is going to be extremely difficult for Kentucky to score in this game. If the Hawkeyes can just find a way to score 10 points on offense, I sincerely believe they will have a good shot at winning this game. Kentucky had a good defense this year — 11th in the country in scoring — so it’s going to be tough sledding, but if the Wildcats score, they win. I will now punt it over to Dave for his opinion on how Kentucky can win a game without scoring. 

Kentucky:

I brought up earlier how Kentucky’s run defense is going to be very important in this one because there’s no chance Iowa will throw the ball much with its third-string quarterback. Iowa leading rusher Kaleb Johnson will be playing, so Kentucky absolutely has to slow him down. It seems like the entirety of the Wildcats defense will play in this game, so they have to key on Johnson.

On the offense side of the ball, just don’t turn it over. Iowa is famous for scoring defensive touchdowns and forcing turnovers. If the Wildcats slow the game down and take care of the football, they’ll be in the game until the end. Once again, I’ll be punting it over to Matt for Iowa’s players to watch. 

Players to Watch:

Iowa: 

#18 PK Drew Stevens — This is not a joke. Iowa’s kicker has been really good this year. Perfect on PATs, and 16-18 on field goal attempts while being perfect from 50+ (2-of-2) is no small feat. Kicking in the Big Ten as well, a few of these games had bad kicking conditions, and yet Stevens trudged through. In a game where points will be at a premium, Stevens’ ability to make non-chip shot field goals will be extremely helpful. If you are into gambling, lines for kickers are normally set at 1.5 FGM for a game. If you can find that bet, it seems a smart play. 

#31 LB Jack Campbell — Jack Campbell was the Butkus Award winner for the best linebacker in the country. He will step on the field and instantly be the best player, nearly without a doubt. He racked up 115 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, two interceptions, a forced fumble and three pass breakups, all while being the captain and play-caller on defense. He should have a massive performance here. Look for him to have at least 10 tackles and try for more influence elsewhere. 

Now the coverage will be punted back to Dave with the players to watch for the Wildcats.

Kentucky:

#96 PK Matt Ruffolo — That’s right, another kicker as a player to watch. The Kentucky defense was solid this year, but there really isn’t anyone who needs attention paid to them. You know who deserves attention? Kicker Matt Ruffolo. While punter Wilson Berry needs to keep Iowa at bay, Ruffolo might be the only guy who can score points for Kentucky. The Wildcats have at least nine skill players out, so I have no idea who is going to be touching the ball, but I know for a fact Ruffolo will be kicking it. Our main man Matt did have a bit of a rough season, going 16-24 on field goals, but he made his kicks at 85.7% and 76.9% clips in the past two years, so the talent is there. Ruffolo is actually pretty good from outside 40 yards for a college kicker, and he might have to do that on Saturday. He went 4-of-7 from 40-49 yards and 1-of-2 from 50+ this year. If he can make three or four field goals and the Kentucky defense plays well, the Wildcats could win just on that. 

#93 P Wilson Berry — If you didn’t know the name Wilson Berry before reading this article, get ready to hear it a ton on Saturday. Berry, a freshman from Australia, took over the punting duties during Kentucky’s win vs. Missouri on Nov. 5. In his nine punts on the season, he’s averaging 41.4 yards per punt and has a long of 53 yards. Not really the best stats by Berry, but that doesn’t matter. He’s going to be on the field a lot, and in order for Kentucky to be successful in this game, Berry has to be effective in flipping the field and pinning Iowa deep. Just like Wilson Berry, I’ll be punting it over to Matt for the final time.

Score Predictions:

Matt: This is going to be low-scoring and ugly. The spread right now is set at -2.5 with Iowa being favored with a total of 31(!) points. This total is historically low for bowl games. I am predicting a total of one touchdown to be scored here, with a final score of 16-6 for Iowa. This touchdown by the way, will be from the defense. If you would like to bet that, that number is at a shockingly high +300 for a defensive or special teams TD, and it’s easily my favorite bet for this game. Iowa 16, Kentucky 6.

Dave: +300 for a defensive or special teams TD in this one is a lock in my opinion, and I’ll be throwing some bones on it for sure. As much as I talked up the Wildcats’ defense and special teams, I can’t truthfully say I think they’ll win this game. This is the kind of game Iowa wants to play: a low-scoring defensive struggle. Iowa is going to win this one 19-9, with a pick six, a safety, a field goal, and a late Kaleb Johnson touchdown. Iowa 19, Kentucky 9