Week 2 was a much needed positive week after the rough start to the season. One bad beat in the USC game with a good beat in the Oregon game, so everything evens out there, and of course we hit our lock for the first time this year. Week 3 is a stinky slate in terms of big games, but it’s all worth it with the absolute feast that will be Week 4. Nevertheless, I have found five more picks I like, so without further ado, let’s get this bread.

BYU at Arkansas: Under 48.5 — 1.1u to win 1u

These are two physical teams that both want to run the ball against each other, which means that the clock will be running a lot. This under is also helped by the absence of Raheim “Rocket” Sanders, who is by far the best player that either of these teams have to offer. I expect the game to remain close and I still think the Hogs win it, but I don’t know if they cover the 7.5-point spread, which is why I went with the under here.

North Texas at Louisiana Tech: Over 68.5 — 1.1u to win 1u

North Texas’ offense has impressed me to start the year, putting up an average of 30 points through the first two weeks. Its defense on the other hand, has been miserable, allowing 58 to Cal and a shocking 46 to FIU, one of the worst offenses in the country. I expect the Mean Green to be in a lot of shootouts this year, and this week will be no different. The Bulldogs haven’t been quite the run-and-gun team the Mean Green have been, but they still have been able to put up points. With both teams likely being unable to stop the other, I think this game could get into the 70s, making the total at 68.5 a good value.

James Madison at Troy: JMU +3 — 1.1u to 1u

I actually could not believe that JMU was the underdog in this game when I saw this line. The Dukes dominated the Sun Belt in 2022 in their first year of FBS ball after a dominant stretch in the FCS. They may not have played Troy last year, but I firmly believe they would have beat the Trojans if they had. I am confident of the same again this year, and if I took money lines in this article, I would have that on here. I think they are far and away the best team in the Sun Belt, and only a stupid rule is stopping them from being perennial conference champions. Troy is not a bad team by any stretch, but the Trojans have come out a little slow to start the season. Their defense has been the real killer, allowing 30 points to a mediocre Stephen F. Austin team and then getting steamrolled by Kansas State. If T.J. Jackson is able to return this week it would be big, but with this only being his first week of practice back from suspension, I don’t think he’ll play.

LSU at Mississippi State: Mississippi State +9.5 — 1.1u to 1u

I genuinely think that Mississippi State could win this game. With Jayden Daniels at quarterback, the Tigers will never be a consistent team. If you can take away his running ability and make him one-dimensional, the offense will sputter. The Bulldogs have the defense to do that, similarly to what they did to Arizona last week. On the other side of the ball, Will Rogers continues to produce at a high level no matter the competition he faces. He may not get the national recognition, but he can put up points on anybody. I think at home, the Bulldogs put up a good fight and even contend for a win here.

LOCK OF THE WEEK:

South Alabama at Oklahoma State: Under 48.5 — 2.2u to win 2u

These have been two of the more disappointing teams to start the year in my opinion. Neither team has lost a game they were favored in, and Oklahoma State is undefeated. However, both offenses can’t seem to kick it into gear. South Alabama has been well under its expected point totals in both weeks, despite having an extremely experienced unit. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have yet to really figure out which of their three quarterbacks they want to take the reins this year, which has led to a very stagnant offense. These teams are a combined 3-1 on unders this year, and I expect that record to improve after what should become a bit of a rock fight in Stillwater.

Last Week: 3-2-0 +1.8u

Yearly: 4-6-0 -3.8u