Another week of going 3-2 and hitting the lock. If I can do that every week of the year I will take it. We are now on a three-week stretch of going positive on this article after a Week 4 that lived up to expectations. Week 5 in college football should be another fantastic one as we have four ranked games to get through and tons of tight conference games elsewhere. I once again have five picks locked and loaded and can’t wait to dive in.

Kansas at Texas: Over 61.5 — 1.1u to win 1u

There’s a lot I like about the over here. The Longhorns’ run defense is good, which means that the Jayhawks will have to throw the ball a lot if they want to move it. Then there is also the revenge angle from the Texas side. Folks around there still aren’t happy about the upset the Jayhawks committed two years ago, so expect Texas to come out and be aggressive. In my eyes, this is shaping up to be a good old-fashioned Big 12 shootout. I think Texas wins comfortably but think that both of these teams are going to score a lot. This game ended at 69 points last year, with Kansas laying a bit of an egg. With a more competitive performance from the Jayhawks this year, this number should get crushed.

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas: Arkansas +6.5 — 1.1u to win 1u

This line keeps on moving down, and I think by kickoff it might be close to 4.5 or 5 points. Connor Weigman is unfortunately out for the season after getting injured last week, and that is a massive blow to this offense. The Aggies were looking like a competent offensive team for the first time in years with him under center, and Max Johnson, while solid, doesn’t give that same upside. On the other side, Arkansas gets back Raheim Sanders at running back. For my money, he is a top four or five running back in the country and will make this game much easier to run out if the Razorbacks happen to have a lead. Arkansas was able to hang tough with an LSU team that I think is better than A&M at its current form, so I think the Razorbacks will be able to do so again.

Clemson at Syracuse: Clemson -6.5 — 1.1u to 1u

I understand that Clemson isn’t quite the team it has been for the last decade, but this is a little ridiculous. Syracuse has had a good start to the year, but its most impressive win is probably over Army, and the Tigers are a big step up over the Black Knights. There is a big talent discrepancy here, and I think this is a game where Cade Klubnik and the rest of this Tigers offense are able to settle in. The defense has been good so far, and the unit should be able to stifle this Orange offense pretty easily. If this game is at Death Valley, I think this spread is probably around 12 or 13 points, and I think it should still be around 10 for this game. Clemson needs to win this game, and Dabo Swinney knows it, so I think the Tigers try to blow Syracuse out here.

Florida at Kentucky: Kentucky -1 — 1.1u to 1u

Florida is getting a tad overrated here based off of a win over an equally overrated Tennessee team. Outside of that game, the Gators were dominated by Utah and failed to impress in a game against a very bad Charlotte team. Meanwhile, Kentucky hasn’t played any great competition but has looked dominant against the bad teams it has faced. I like the way the Wildcats defense matches up against Florida, as it tries to bait the quarterback into making mistakes — something Graham Mertz is susceptible to. On the other side of the ball, Kentucky is more pass heavy than previous years, which is good because Florida’s defense has been better against the run than it has the pass. This game being at Kentucky is the sealer for me, as this school is starting to get behind its football team a bit more, and a big game against an SEC blue blood should have that place rocking.

LOCK OF THE WEEK:

South Carolina at Tennessee: Tennessee +12.5 — 2.2u to win 2u

I was utterly shocked when I saw this line. Even with this game being at Tennessee, this game should still be in the double digits in my opinion. Spencer Rattler has continued his run that started at the end of last season against Tennessee and has looked great so far. The only real weakness in this South Carolina team is the offensive line, and I don’t think the Vols have the defensive line to take advantage of it the way Georgia was able to. The Gamecocks were able to cover this number against Georgia last week and had the Bulldogs on the ropes in the first half. I’ve been on record as saying this Tennessee team was overrated to start the year and still believe so. I think the Gamecocks have a good chance to win this game outright and would be floored if they didn’t cover this spread.

Last Week: 3-2-0 +1.8u

Yearly: 10-10-0 -0.2u