Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs look to take the next step in defending their status as the sport’s top dog. Ohio State lost in the regular season finale to Michigan but backed into the College Football Playoff, and now Ryan Day’s Buckeyes are seeking redemption in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. Who will advance to the national championship?

How We Got Here:

Georgia: 

After losing 15 players to the draft, including five defensive starters, many expected a step back for the 2021 national champions. Not only did Georgia not take a step back, it can be argued that it took a step forward into becoming the next college football juggernaut. 

It did not take long for the Dawgs to silence the doubters, as they marched into Mercedes-Benz Stadium Week 1 and laid an absolute beat down of No. 11 Oregon, winning 49-3 and showing they were still the kings of college football. And aside from a near-upset bid by Missouri, where the Dawgs had to come back from a 13-point deficit, it was smooth sailing for them all season, winning every game by double digits.

Georgia’s season culminated with another beatdown in the place where the first one took place, this time being LSU in the SEC Championship Game, with the Bulldogs winning 50-30 to cement a 13-0 record and the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. Following the game, quarterback Stetson Bennett IV earned a trip to New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist. 

Ohio State:

Ohio State’s 2022 season started on Nov. 28, 2021, the day after a walloping at the hands of Aidan Hutchinson, Hassan Haskins, and the Michigan Wolverines. Everything the Buckeyes did in the offseason was working to reclaim their birthright as champions of the Big Ten East and winners of The Game. All of the wins over Maryland and Rutgers and Iowa were window-dressing; only one contest mattered. And then the Buckeyes lost their redemption game in stunning fashion as Michigan threw multiple big-play haymakers to steal a second straight win.

But a second chance has appeared, thanks to Utah upsetting USC in the Pac-12 title game and allowing the one-loss Buckeyes to sneak into the playoff as the fourth seed. The bitter taste of two straight losses to the hated Wolverines can be erased with a pair of playoff victories. 

Keys to the Game:

Georgia:

It’s going to come down to the passing game on both sides of the ball for Georgia. The Dawgs have allowed explosive plays when giving the quarterback time to throw the ball. In the SEC title game, they allowed over 500 yards through the air. Against a Heisman finalist in C.J. Stroud and a star receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr., UGA will have its hands full, and allowing them to connect on long plays can be a recipe for disaster. 

On offense, Georgia loves to run its passing game through its tight ends and running backs. Ohio State happens to rank second in the country in defensive pass efficiency against running backs and tight ends. UGA may have to depend on its receivers to move the ball downfield. Guys like Ladd McConkey, AD Mitchell and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint will become big pieces for the Dawgs. 

Ohio State:

In order to win this game, Ohio State will need to limit explosive pass plays from the Georgia offense. This is a matchup of weaknesses, and the Buckeyes can not afford to allow Georgia to create chunk yardage in the air. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles will play an aggressive, attacking scheme that often leads to exploitable man-to-man situations. Michigan stole the game in Columbus last month mostly thanks to four long touchdowns against an all-out blitzing Buckeyes defense. Georgia’s offense does many things well, but big plays in the pass game is not one of them: the Bulldogs rank 124th out of 131 FBS teams in explosive passing. As the underdog, Ohio State can not allow Georgia to have a big game in an aspect of the game that is not critical to its offense. 

Players to Watch:

Georgia:

#5 WR AD Mitchell — One of the stars of last year’s national title run, Mitchell has missed nine games this season due to an ankle injury he suffered in Week 2. With almost a month between the SEC title game and the Peach Bowl, AD is finally healthy and is expected to be a huge part of the offense for UGA. With Ohio State expected to focus its attention to Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, Mitchell could once again be a hero for the Dawgs. 

#5 CB Kelee Ringo — Another hero from last season’s title game, Kelee Ringo has had an up and down season defending the opponents’ best receivers. He’s come up with clutch interceptions but has also had bad reads and pass interference calls when beat by the receiver. Ringo will have a huge task defending Marvin Harrison Jr. The Dawgs cannot afford for Ringo to be a liability. He’ll need to be locked in and prove to be the first-round talent he’s been projected to be. 

Ohio State:

#2 WR Emeka Egbuka — C.J. Stroud’s second weapon will need to have a big day against Georgia in order to threaten the Bulldogs’ defense and stress it in multiple areas. Marvin Harrison Jr. is a star out wide and one of the most productive players in the country, but Egbuka’s production from the slot will be critical to Ohio State maintaining versatility in the attack. 

Egbuka was Harrison’s equal for the first six weeks of the season, averaging 109.2 yards a game and reaching the end zone seven times. However, he faltered down the stretch, reaching only 51.8 yards a game in the next five before getting back on track in the finale against Michigan (125 yards). During his slump, his production on yards after the catch basically vanished: from 9.9 YAC/reception during the first six games to 3.2 YAC/reception in his five-game slump. 

Egbuka largely operates from the slot and will primarily be shadowed by Javon Bullard, a sound tackler who allowed only 4.7 YAC/reception on the season. Ohio State’s offense will be far more dangerous if Egbuka can wiggle away from Bullard and create plays after the catch like he did in the first half of the season.

HC Ryan Day — It seems absurd that Ryan Day might be on the hot seat entering the 2023 season, but that will be the case if his team is wiped out by Georgia. Day has a 45-5 record as the head man in Columbus, but the goal at Ohio State is not just to compile a gaudy winning percentage, but beat Michigan and win national championships. 

Two elements of this game will serve as a referendum on Day’s strength as an offensive coach: his reputation as a fantastic game-planner, and his growing tendency to make ultra-conservative decisions with the ball during the game. 

In 2019, his team lost a playoff game to Clemson by a razor’s edge margin; in 2020, Day’s squad exacted revenge with a dominant win thanks to a brilliant game-plan. He could earn back a lot of trust with similarly sharp preparation for the Georgia defense. He will also need to call the game more aggressively than his recent tendencies, which have flown against some of the recent analytic advances in the sport that have opened up more aggressive control of ball possession and scoring. 

This game isn’t a full “must-win” for Ryan Day, but a poor showing by his team will warm up his seat considerably going into the 2023. Evidence of strong preparation and game-calling will buy him more leeway heading into next year when he will have to replace his franchise quarterback.

Score Predictions:

Dan: Ohio State comes out sharp and focused, but Georgia’s defense is too physical and too athletic. The Bulldogs lean on ball control in the second half to win an instant classic. Georgia 24, Ohio State 21.

Brian: A heavyweight bout between two programs who have been mainstays in the CFP, this has the potential to be a gray game. Ohio State will come out swinging but Georgia will be too physical at the line of scrimmage in the end. The Buckeyes will keep it close most of the game but Georgia will pull away late. Georgia 31, Ohio State 21.