Dan:

Our Group of Five Game of the Week takes us to Mobile, Ala., for an upstart rivalry between two upstart teams in an upstart conference. The Battle for the Belt is quite literally a battle for the Sun Belt West this year, as the winner of the Troy-South Alabama tilt will have the inside track on reaching – or perhaps even hosting – the conference championship game. These two will meet Thursday night on ESPNU, and the clash is must-watch viewing for those of who enjoy this crazy sport nose to tail.

The Battle for the Belt is still relatively new in football. Troy’s football history spans a century, but it did not meet its rivals on the gridiron until South Alabama’s program elevated to FBS in its fourth year of existence in 2012. The teams split the first six matchups, but the Trojans won the next four, and they will bring that winning streak to Mobile and put it on the line Thursday night. 

But this year’s clash has more than just bragging rights at stake. These outfits are sloughing off Louisiana’s recent dominance of the Sun Belt West, and both have eyes on claiming the division throne for themselves. Kane Wommack has his Jaguars in pole position in his second year at the helm in Mobile, sitting at 3-0 in conference play and within shouting distance of the AP Top 25. Troy is 2-1 in league play, fulfilling the expectations of first-year head coach Jon Sumrall, who was hired to get the most out of a talented yet underachieving roster. 

This matchup will be a collision of strengths. Both teams rank much higher in SP+ rankings on the defensive side of the ball than on offense. South Alabama has allowed itself to be dragged into some shootouts this season despite its stronger defense, and with Toledo transfer Carter Bradley at quarterback, the Jaguars have acquitted themselves well in those high-paced games. The Trojans are thriving in rockfights, stifling opponents and scoring just enough points to win. 

So sit back and enjoy a rivalry matchup with heady stakes in a standalone television window in primetime. The game should be close, exciting, and well-played. Joining us now is Matt to break down the specifics.

Matt:

Keys to the Game:

South Alabama: Win the Turnover Battle

One of the keys to the Jaguars’ hot start has been winning the turnover battle. This comes from their “Swarm Defense,” which they have been playing since the beginning of the 2021 season. They are a staggering +8 on the season — good for fifth in the country. This is extremely beneficial for the offense, as it is constantly getting short fields to work with, because the Jaguars’ defense is forcing more than two turnovers a game. Part of the reason that the Jaguars have been in more shootout style games is that they have a risk-taking, opportunistic defense. They would rather have a chance at a big play than be passive, which leads to a high number of turnovers, but also could lead to big plays for the other team. For the majority of the year, those plays have gone the way of the Jaguars, but they will need to keep that up to win against the Trojans.

Troy: Stop the Run

Excluding games can always be tricky, but it adds good context here. If you take out the game against Ole Miss, which is a top three rushing team in the country, Troy is allowing 85.5 rushing yards per game and a stunning 2.57 yards per carry. Those numbers would be good for sixth and third in the country, respectively. The Trojans still have been very good — a top 25 team in both of those statistics — but I don’t think that tells the true story of just how dominant they have been this season. That number will be important as South Alabama has been one of the better rushing teams in the Sun Belt. If the Trojans can stop the run and get the Jaguars into long second and third downs, it will go a long way in helping slow down this explosive offense.

Players to Watch:

South Alabama: Safety Yam Banks

Our player to watch for the Jaguars will be one of the key cogs in their “Swarm Defense” — Yam Banks. Banks occupies the nickel safety position for the Jaguars, which they refer to as their “Husky” player. The Husky is central to their defense and will often be manned up against the opposition’s best players, while also having run for responsibilities as a box safety. The third-year sophomore has been brilliant in the first half of the year in this role, which the Jaguars have needed as they have lost two starters in the secondary to injury. Banks has racked up three interceptions, seven pass deflections, and a fumble recovery so far this season, and has been central to the chaos the Jaguars cause. Last week against UL-Monroe, Banks wore the honorary number five, which the Jaguars give to one player every week who they feel exemplifies what they stand for as a program. The number is given to honor the life of running back Anthony Mostella, who tragically lost his life in 2010. He backed up that honor by getting his third interception of the year, so it only makes sense that we highlight him here.

Troy: EDGE T.J. Jackson

We already talked about how important it is going to be for the Trojans to get South Alabama behind the sticks by stopping the run, so it only makes sense to talk about T.J. Jackson as the most important player to watch. Not only is Jackson their leader in tackles for loss and sacks, he is 10th in the country in tackles for loss and tied for 13th in sacks, one of only three players to be top 13 in both. Simply put, he has been one of the best defensive linemen in the country. He has kind of come out of nowhere after a somewhat disappointing freshman year, where he failed to log a sack and only recorded one tackle for loss. He has made up for that and then some by leading this fierce Trojans run defense to being one of the better units in the country. He has also shown a knack for stripping the ball on sacks, already forcing two fumbles on the year. According to his coaches, he may not have reached his limit yet either. While it’s obvious he has taken a leap from last year, Jon Sumrall mentioned that if you go back and look at the tape from the Ole Miss game, it is clear that he has become more technically sound “each week and [he loves] how he has been playing the game.”

Score Prediction:

I expect this to be a tightly-contested game throughout, as almost all of these teams’ games have been this year. In the end however, I think that the Jaguars are the better all-around team and will pull this one out late. This won’t be the high-scoring affair Jaguars fans are used to, but they will win a close one. South Alabama 21, Troy 17.