Andrew

Florida Atlantic hosts UCF in a quietly underrated game for Florida supremacy. The Owls are coming off of a 42-9 win over Southeast Louisiana. Willie Taggart’s squad is looking to move to 3-1 after some impressive performances from N’Kosi Perry, who ranks second in Division I in passing yards. Not having Johnny Ford hasn’t really kept this team back, with Larry McCammon averaging seven yards per carry on 43 attempts. This will be a tall task for the Owls, but hosting this game in Boca Raton could prove to be the difference.

FAU Keys To The Game:

Neutralize John Rhys Plumlee

UCF just lost to a poorly-coached Louisville team because John Rhys Plumlee couldn’t get anything going. He tallied 214 yards of offense and couldn’t find any holes in the Cardinals’ defense. FAU needs to watch that game over and over to make sure it has the best gameplan to neutralize JRP and the speed around him.

Win the Time of Possession

FAU needs to force UCF into a panic. I’m not saying the Owls need to lead the entire game, but they need to put some pressure on Gus Malzahn going into the fourth quarter so he makes one of his famously-awful coaching decisions. FAU was beaten in the TOP category against Ohio by 11.5 minutes, which you can also attribute to the -2 turnover ratio. 

FAU Players to Watch: 

RB Larry McCammon:

UCF is giving up six yards per carry through the first two games so far, which opens up the opportunity for McCammon. This also coincides with the battle for time of possession as the Owls can elongate drives if they have a lead in the second half. 

LB Eddie Williams:

Another player who is coinciding with one of my keys to the game. Eddie Williams needs to get to JRP on a consistent basis so we can see a game similar to the one he had last week against Louisville. Williams is the leading tackler for the Owls, and I think he is going to be used to not only get after JRP, but make sure he is contained as well.

Score Prediction:

FAU 31 — UCF 25. I’ve been high on FAU for quite some time now, and I don’t see anything proving me wrong yet. I think UCF has a good team and can make it to the AAC title game, but I love this spot for the Owls. A good game from N’Kosi Perry (where he hopefully doesn’t turn the ball over) makes me lean FAU.

Dan

The Knights had a lot of energy coming into this season after a bowl win over the Florida Gators and a spot as one of the three legitimate AAC contenders. The offense has Gus Malzahn calling plays with the dynamic John Rhys Plumlee operating the attack, alongside a pair of running backs (Isaiah Bowser and Johnny Richardson) who both topped 700 yards on the ground in 2021. The defense is on the rise under the watchful tutelage of coordinator Travis Williams, and a host of Power Five transfers were brought on board to help support the unit.

Things started swimmingly with a dismantling of South Carolina State on Thursday night in Week 1, and then went off the rails in a Friday night Week 2 loss to Louisville. The offense stalled out, and Cardinals do-everything QB Malik Cunningham did, well, everything. 

UCF heads on its first road game of the season with a disappointing 1-1 record, hoping for a return to normalcy with a game played on Saturday. 

UCF Keys to the Game:

Play-calling

UCF fans – or those of us who had a vested financial interest in UCF beating Louisville by more than 5.5 points – were exasperated with Malzahn’s offensive play-calling in that game. The Knights, particularly Plumlee, were unstoppable on the ground and ineffective with the aerial attack. And yet, time and time again, and then another time for good measure, Malzahn took to the air.

Let’s allow this tweet from Bud Elliott to show the discrepancy.

via @robert_binion

UCF had a 100th percentile EPA when running the ball (0.24)

And a ZERO PERCENTILE EPA when passing (negative 0.55). pic.twitter.com/gXroANd9lG

— Bud Elliott (@BudElliott3) September 10, 2022

FAU’s defense is beatable, ranking 79th in SP+. Will Malzahn steer this ship to a win?

Pass defense

The strength of the UCF is the secondary, with most key contributors back. Slowing down Perry and this passing attack will be critical. The Knights were successful against Louisville, causing Cunningham to complete only 14 of 29 passes, sacking him twice, and only allowing 6.0 yards per dropback. The front seven allowed Cunningam to beat them with his legs, as he rushed for 121 yards, including a 43-yard touchdown in the third quarter that gave the Cardinals the lead they would never relinquish. Perry is not a rushing threat, and the secondary must limit his output.

UCF Players to Watch: 

QB John Rhys Plumlee

Simply put, Plumlee can be one of the most electric players in the country when utilized properly. He was last seen as a legitimate SEC receiver – that is the kind of game-breaking speed he possesses from the backfield. Malzahn chose Plumlee over the more traditional passer Mikey Keene because of his game-breaking running ability. For UCF to achieve its goals, Plumlee will have to be unleashed as the game-breaking ball-carrier that he is.

S Quadric Bullard

Quadric Bullard is a jack-of-all-trades safety who finished second-team all-AAC in 2021 and whose versatility can help stymie and confuse opposing offenses. Bullard leads all Knights defenders with 101 snaps and has been aligned in the box, as a free safety, covering in the slot, and has even put his hand in the dirt five times this season. Watch Bullard make plays all over the field, and watch how Travis Williams deploys him across the chess board. 

Score Prediction:

UCF 34 — FAU 24. FAU has started the year in explosive fashion, but UCF represents a serious step up in competition. Last week’s loss by the Knights will serve as a wake-up call, and the team will lock in to achieve their goals of winning the AAC. Perry’s passing plays into UCF’s strengths as a defense, and I expect the Knights to take care of business.